**Unit 7: Probability**

**This unit should take approximately 14 instructional days**

**This unit should take approximately 14 instructional days**

7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around ½ indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability.

7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

a. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events.

b. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.

7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

a. Understand that just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is a fraction of outcomes in the sample space which the compound event occurs

b. Represent for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables, and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g. "rolling double sixes"), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

c. Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events.

Essential Vocabulary: